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Old Dec 1 2004, 10:30 PM   #1
Kater
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Default Aivas and the future of Pern

How do you think the discovery of Avais is going to impact the future of Pern? I would hope that the people of Pern would be able to use the information in the computer banks and still be able to keep the integrity they have as a low tech society.

I think that the new Dolpheneers Hall would be able to get good use of the memory banks as well as Oldive and Sharra. Do you think the people of Pern would ever accept surgury?

Do you think that Pernese would ever try to get to the point where they could explore space? Try to find earth again??

What do you think?
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Old Dec 1 2004, 11:02 PM   #2
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

My question would be are they ever going to be able to attain a standard of hygiene and tool development where complex surgery is both possible and surviveable? I mean, yes, you can do basic stuff without massive infection if you're careful, but I'm not seeing them ever being technically capable of doing, say, bypass surgery with a high survival rate.
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Old Dec 1 2004, 11:05 PM   #3
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

I think it'll be a long haul on the issue of surgery, and invasive techinques. Look at our own world...we have grown up with it, but there ARE people who won't allow it within their families, and there are also people who fear there is too much UNNEEDED invasive procedures being done these days.

I share Menolly's concerns that not everything AVAIS can teach is needed on the planet Pern has become on it's own.
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Old Dec 2 2004, 12:37 AM   #4
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

Other than the obvious cessation of Thread, I think AIVAS' biggest contribution to Pern is its research and storage capabilities. Most of the books have at least a few lamentations about the deterioration of Records and the loss of knowledge. As for surgical procedures, I think we saw in a couple of instances, the resistance to invasive surgery. I agree that it'll probably be quite a ways in the future, if at all, before it's generally accepted.
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Old Dec 2 2004, 07:43 AM   #5
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

I'd like to see wide spread use of electricity (or did this already happen? I haven't yet read some of the last books) Glows are fun to read about but I don't think I'd want to use them.
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Old Dec 2 2004, 12:13 PM   #6
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

I think that attitudes to surgery, in particular, will cahnge, but still stay on a 'primitive' level, dealing with minor incursions into the human body. And I think that people will adapt to accept it when they see how useful it can be. I don't think that Pern will ever change into a fully technological world, but it will become more advanced.
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Old Dec 2 2004, 04:53 PM   #7
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

I wasn't thinking so much of the psychological hangups about surgery, which as you say some people still have (and we might argue that some are right about questionably-necessary procedures, especially forarys into the cosmetic.) I was just thinking in practical terms, could they even manufacture the kind of tools they'd need and create the conditions they'd need for anything more complicated than a C-section or apendectomy or hysterectomy, all of which have been done for a long time with a decent survival rate? Even now, bypass surgery is a touchy situation, though by and large most patients survive and don't die of secondary infections. But it's a fine-tuning thing. Or surgery on the liver, or kidneys, or any other complex organ? (Forget organ transplants.) Even if AIVAS has the knowledge to show them, and they are things the colonists would have kept doing without Thread, could the Pernese ever manufacture the tools they'd need to do them?
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Old Dec 2 2004, 05:31 PM   #8
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

Anareth I think in the long run if they REALLY wanted to be able to perform these proceedures they could probably find a way to do it. I just don't think that the issues (for lack of the word I want coming into my head... I may editi later when it does come to me) they have with invading another person's body for surgury will ever truely be over come. Not to say that is a bad thing because I think sometimes in certain cercumstances less medical intervention is better.

As to the electrical I think that Fanderal and the smiths were trying to find a way to make it more available to the entire planet. It wasn't something that was in the front of any of the recent books it's just a feeling I got while reading Skies. Landing of course has electricity to a point so that the computers are powered but I think (and hope too) in the future we can see maybe limited electricity throughout the planet. Just enough to be helpful for minimal lighting and heating of water maybe. Possibly they might be able to starting using solar power again?
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Old Dec 2 2004, 06:05 PM   #9
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kater snip
As to the electrical I think that Fanderal and the smiths were trying to find a way to make it more available to the entire planet. It wasn't something that was in the front of any of the recent books it's just a feeling I got while reading Skies. Landing of course has electricity to a point so that the computers are powered but I think (and hope too) in the future we can see maybe limited electricity throughout the planet. Just enough to be helpful for minimal lighting and heating of water maybe. Possibly they might be able to starting using solar power again?
There was some opposition to electirfying Pern by the Abominators, despite the fact that Fanderal had developed electricity years before they dug up Aivas (remember his distance writer & loudspeaker setup in DQ? )

That may actually be a sore spot for the Colonists since electrical systems are easily subject to sabotage by the Abominators.
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Old Dec 2 2004, 06:12 PM   #10
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

Quite true Ryuu I don't seem to remember much opposition to the distance writer and loudspeaker though. I do remember that there was never much of a chance to test it because thread fell and severed the wires. I don't think there was any real follow up to it after that
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Old Dec 3 2004, 06:20 AM   #11
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

he'd moved on from telegraph to radio by then. I cant remember which book though. It was Nicat and Fandarel. That'd make them crystal sets thinking about it as I dont think Pern was at the stage then to make valves and definately not transistors!
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Old Dec 3 2004, 07:54 AM   #12
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Big Grin Re: Avais and the future of Pern

As I recall even though the AI part of AVAIS had shut down the files were still available on the education stations. so to learn new surgery - that is new to Pern healers - all they need to do is access the medicle files.

Computers are making a come back on Pern
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Old Dec 3 2004, 08:21 AM   #13
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

I am a member of the group Larry belongs to I mean concerning Pern and the belief that AIVAS has only shut down the AI part of itself. The computer system and files and its gigantic database (much better and safer stored than we can even imagine) will be accessible to students.

Pern nature being what it is I do think that we'll see a selected and relatively select group studying "with AIVAS" though, and those people will be the ones who will pass the knowledge. This way the extent of knowledge can be somewhat controlled, which is - per definition - not a good thing always, but it is the way I think the Pernese will handle the wealth of information and the protection of their world as did the colonists milennia before them.
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Old Dec 3 2004, 08:53 AM   #14
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Big Grin Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

I like being in the same group with Hans as he is usually right.
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Old Dec 3 2004, 09:43 AM   #15
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Default Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

That he is! Except of course when he disagrees with me!

I agree that AIVAS only shut down his AI program (well, actually I rather think he deleted the AI program) but that all the data he holds is still available to those that can learn how to access it. And I agree as well that access will be largely restricted to select individuals who've earned a study spot.
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Old Dec 3 2004, 02:05 PM   #16
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

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Originally Posted by edith
he'd moved on from telegraph to radio by then. I cant remember which book though. It was Nicat and Fandarel. That'd make them crystal sets thinking about it as I dont think Pern was at the stage then to make valves and definately not transistors!
vacume tubes (valves as the Brits call them) for radios are actually easy to make, given Pern's level of technology (est ~early 18th to mid 19th Century level). Look at when Marconi did his transatlantic broadcast. And Pern has a mix of technology levels, too, so we can't relegate them to all Medival level (as it seemed in early DF).

But Technological improvements between 1400's to the early 1700's was really non existant. What the 1700's had as an advantange over someone in the 1400's was principly improved dissemination of info, better manufacturing due to skilled laborers working in organized "crafts", and relatively secure delivery of products due to improved policing. Technologically, there was little difference.

Given that Fanderal had developed the telegraph & telephone on his own, and they maintained flamethrowers, and the miners were using nitro and blasting powders probably gives the Pernese learned the equivalent of late 17th-mid 18th Century tech. Only the fact that they still used bows rather than firearms, and there seemed to be no rail system, as well as the descriptions of their clothing made them seem anacranistic. Their (the crafts people & educated folk, not the Abominators) reactions to high tech marvels also seems to support my estimate for their comparative level of tech. A 19th Century learned man looking at a TV from today would have nearly the same reaction as Lessa & Fanderal did. If they were much less technologically astute, they would've been reacting as the Abominators did.

I would agree, however, that Transistors and IC chips are a bit yet beyond their ability. It requires manufacturing techniques that evidently are not yet redeveloped.
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Old Dec 3 2004, 02:38 PM   #17
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Default Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

I also agree that AIVAS only shut down/deleted the AI portion of the program.

In a future Pern I can see them having Telephones or some sort of communication system since they were headed that way when they found AIVAS. I don't know that I can see them having a transportaition system like a RailRoad or cars or anything like that. For one they have the dragons. For another I think apon investigation for building these systems they would see the harmful effects on the planet. This then would probably mean (unlike I wondered in an earlier post) they would not get into space travel. One could wonder though if they would find a way to get a message to Earth or another system that the planet was still thriving or if they would just stay as is in fear of invation.

So many interesting possiblities!
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Old Dec 3 2004, 03:28 PM   #18
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Well they alerady know that the dragons "Can" do space filghts so it could happen again perhas they can make a space suit big enough for the dragons What we know has been done can be done again. AND they know now
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Old Dec 3 2004, 04:10 PM   #19
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Default Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

Quote:
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Well they alerady know that the dragons "Can" do space filghts so it could happen again perhas they can make a space suit big enough for the dragons What we know has been done can be done again. AND they know now
Very interesting thought Larry!! Would there be coordinates for other planets in the computer memory banks? Because if they had those couldn't the dragons plan a jump between to other worlds?? Hmmm Something to think about!
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Old Dec 3 2004, 04:38 PM   #20
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If you extrapolate from the figures they give for the length of time between vs. distance travelled, you'll discover that space travel is simply not feasible. It would take hours at a minimum to a very nearby planet, days for further ones. Even if you solve the oxygen-deprivation problem, I think that it wouldn't be possible for a dragon to keep up the necessary mental effort for the transfer for multiple hours, leading to death between.
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Old Dec 3 2004, 05:25 PM   #21
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Big Grin Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheryl
If you extrapolate from the figures they give for the length of time between vs. distance travelled, you'll discover that space travel is simply not feasible. It would take hours at a minimum to a very nearby planet, days for further ones. Even if you solve the oxygen-deprivation problem, I think that it wouldn't be possible for a dragon to keep up the necessary mental effort for the transfer for multiple hours, leading to death between.
I am not so sure about that - remember the wings went between with the ships engins to the red planet and way way back in time as well.. I think the dragons could do it... you know that if a dragon thinks it can - well it will happen...
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Old Dec 3 2004, 05:38 PM   #22
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Default Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

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I am not so sure about that - remember the wings went between with the ships engins to the red planet and way way back in time as well.. I think the dragons could do it... you know that if a dragon thinks it can - well it will happen...
The distances involved weren't nearly as much as it would be going to another star system. Also, time itself doesn't seem to be the factor involved...rather the distance the Rukbat system/planet Pern traveled in the time jumped (at least according to Aivas)

Even the 800Turn jump that Jaxom made on his second trip, assuming stellar drift of 22km/s (which is Sol's...Rukbat would be similar) only makes ~25,297,920,000km (or ~175AU) & about the same # seconds for Turn as our year.

as a reference, 1cyr is 65,743.65AU and most stars have several lightyears between them as a minimum. To reach as specific destination could easily get into the 100s-10,000s cyrs.
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Old Dec 3 2004, 06:01 PM   #23
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Default Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

I didn't really think it would be possible it was just something that crossed my mind. But who knows what could happen in the SciFi world
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Old Dec 3 2004, 08:24 PM   #24
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Like I said if a dragon can think it can - it will happen...
Draconic powers are ever growing these dragons are possible T1's
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Old Dec 4 2004, 10:12 AM   #25
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Default Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

Quote:
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Like I said if a dragon can think it can - it will happen...
Draconic powers are ever growing these dragons are possible T1's

FT&T meets Pern.....

GOTTA wonder what Rowan would think of dragons, eh?
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Old Dec 4 2004, 10:28 AM   #26
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FT&T meets Pern.....

GOTTA wonder what Rowan would think of dragons, eh?
Suppose talent from the FT&T went to Pern?
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Old Dec 4 2004, 10:44 AM   #27
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Personally I think that the dragons and their riders might solve some staffing issues for FT&T! (If nothing else then to keep people on thier toes!! LOL)
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Old Dec 4 2004, 11:37 AM   #28
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Default Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

I think out-of-system jumps are right out, and Earth is absolutely out of the question (all AIVAS's records would be 2500 years out of date, for a start, meaning who knows when you'd turn up, if you ever did.) But in-system, particularly the moons, doesn't seem like a total impossibility. They made it to the red star, after all. By making little hops in-system, they could eventually get references to go to a lot of places in Pern's own space. I'm curious about the dark planet on the far side of Pern's sun. (The anti-Pern?)
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Old Dec 4 2004, 12:10 PM   #29
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I think out-of-system jumps are right out, and Earth is absolutely out of the question (all AIVAS's records would be 2500 years out of date, for a start, meaning who knows when you'd turn up, if you ever did.) But in-system, particularly the moons, doesn't seem like a total impossibility. They made it to the red star, after all. By making little hops in-system, they could eventually get references to go to a lot of places in Pern's own space. I'm curious about the dark planet on the far side of Pern's sun. (The anti-Pern?)

??? Dark Planet??? where does that come from?
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Old Dec 4 2004, 12:14 PM   #30
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??? Dark Planet??? where does that come from?
I believe Skies.....It's something Tia and F'lessan spot from Honshu's scope?
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Old Dec 4 2004, 06:53 PM   #31
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I think it's first mentioned in ATWOP, when they're looking at maps and charts uncovered in Landing, and they see a planet on the charts that's on the far side of Pern's sun from all the others (the ones they've been seeing through Wansor's scopes) and it isn't the Red Star. It's apparently always on the oposite side of the sun from Pern, so I don't know if Tai and F'lessan saw it (I could be wrong, it took me a lot less time in Skies than ATWOP in this reread before I had to start skimming or fall asleep. Really didn't enjoy that book.)
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Old Dec 5 2004, 05:28 AM   #32
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Default Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

whoever said that the only way pern might rediscover the rest of galactic civilisation is for them to go and find them ?

eventualy someone outthere in a ship must either intentionaly or unintentionaly visit regardles of the edicts laid down by the flyby rescue ship in that short story!

after all eventualy someone might get curious enough to come looksie!
even if they do it unobtrusivly (ala some sort of prime directive type rules) and go amongst the people of pern without revealing themselves!
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Old Dec 5 2004, 05:38 AM   #33
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whoever said that the only way pern might rediscover the rest of galactic civilisation is for them to go and find them ?

eventualy someone outthere in a ship must either intentionaly or unintentionaly visit regardles of the edicts laid down by the flyby rescue ship in that short story!

after all eventualy someone might get curious enough to come looksie!
even if they do it unobtrusivly (ala some sort of prime directive type rules) and go amongst the people of pern without revealing themselves!
Nice fantasy H but Anne ruled out the idea of any interaction in the official books (supposing here that Todd will [also] play by the rules). Personally I not only "obey" her in that, I think it's very sensible. The rue the day Pern will be rediscovered or will discover and make space travel for real...
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Old Dec 5 2004, 05:56 AM   #34
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Nice fantasy H but Anne ruled out the idea of any interaction in the official books (supposing here that Todd will [also] play by the rules). Personally I not only "obey" her in that, I think it's very sensible. The rue the day Pern will be rediscovered or will discover and make space travel for real...
awwwwww
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Old Dec 5 2004, 03:05 PM   #35
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

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Originally Posted by Ryuu
vacume tubes (valves as the Brits call them) for radios are actually easy to make, given Pern's level of technology (est ~early 18th to mid 19th Century level). Look at when Marconi did his transatlantic broadcast. And Pern has a mix of technology levels, too, so we can't relegate them to all Medival level (as it seemed in early DF).
Valves arent that easy to make-you need a vacuum and very skilled glass blowing. Marconi's 1st set wasn't valve-they werent invented until 1904 and the thermionic valve. The first commercial valve radio was the marconi V1 in the 1920s-I know cos we've got a working one at home. Commercial crystal sets were available from 1906.
Crystal sets are alot easier to build. They used to be something all wannabe radio ammatuers made using a toilet roll tube and a length of wire etc!
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Old Dec 6 2004, 10:43 AM   #36
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Default Re: Avais and the future of Pern

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Originally Posted by edith
Valves arent that easy to make-you need a vacuum and very skilled glass blowing. Marconi's 1st set wasn't valve-they werent invented until 1904 and the thermionic valve. The first commercial valve radio was the marconi V1 in the 1920s-I know cos we've got a working one at home. Commercial crystal sets were available from 1906.
Crystal sets are alot easier to build. They used to be something all wannabe radio ammatuers made using a toilet roll tube and a length of wire etc!
At the end of AtWoP, they did have the skills to create vacuums & the glassblowing skills to create such electronic tubes. They had built CRT's, which are much harder to design & construct than the standard triode or pentode used in amplification of signals (they need phospher & other elements, many of which are toxic to build CRT's). The most pressing problem would be developing the materials (germanium, arsenic, etc) used for making the tubes longer lasting, but even standard copper & iron could be substituted for the cathode/annode elements.
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Old Dec 6 2004, 03:35 PM   #37
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Default Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

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Nice fantasy H (supposing here that Todd will [also] play by the rules)
I don't see why he wouldn't respect his mother's wishes, and he is in a far better environment where he could be exposed to arguments why. Personally, I see Todd as developing the third pass to the exclusion of others, and I hope that he uses this as the chance to explore his own themes and concerns, using the shared setting.

Doing that, exploring your own concerns, and the like, is always important for both fanfiction and pastiches. It is better to see what can be done, rather than just pale imitations.

Coming back to AIVAS, and the question of the memory banks, the problem I have with these surving, and not the AI, was that the AI filtered the memory banks, limiting itself to what was useful and essential (not the same thing) for Pern. By offering just information, useless and harmful material could be offered, and thereby the dangers increased. So, then, I see the whole AIVAS as most likely to have shut down, with whatever material they had gained from it, and recorded, being its essential legacy. Ultimately, though, of course, the final arbiter is Anne herself, and we shall see, I hope, what she plans to do with the issue.
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Old Dec 6 2004, 03:47 PM   #38
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Default Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

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snip snip

Coming back to AIVAS, and the question of the memory banks, the problem I have with these surving, and not the AI, was that the AI filtered the memory banks, limiting itself to what was useful and essential (not the same thing) for Pern. By offering just information, useless and harmful material could be offered, and thereby the dangers increased. So, then, I see the whole AIVAS as most likely to have shut down, with whatever material they had gained from it, and recorded, being its essential legacy. Ultimately, though, of course, the final arbiter is Anne herself, and we shall see, I hope, what she plans to do with the issue.
I think we already see in MHoP that the computers them selves with some amount (not quite sure how much) are still up and running as they are being used as the basis for the new school. Hopefully before he shut down AIVAS did some kind of incryption on the information that would be available to the people of pern but I doubt it. My feeling is that our friends of the current pass, for good or bad, have access to all of AVIAS' knowladge and will probably filter through it and use what they can and discard what they can't.

Hopefully there wont be TOO much misuse.
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Old Dec 7 2004, 06:44 AM   #39
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Default Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

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Originally Posted by ghyle
I don't see why he wouldn't respect his mother's wishes, and he is in a far better environment where he could be exposed to arguments why. Personally, I see Todd as developing the third pass to the exclusion of others, and I hope that he uses this as the chance to explore his own themes and concerns, using the shared setting.

Doing that, exploring your own concerns, and the like, is always important for both fanfiction and pastiches. It is better to see what can be done, rather than just pale imitations.

Coming back to AIVAS, and the question of the memory banks, the problem I have with these surving, and not the AI, was that the AI filtered the memory banks, limiting itself to what was useful and essential (not the same thing) for Pern. By offering just information, useless and harmful material could be offered, and thereby the dangers increased. So, then, I see the whole AIVAS as most likely to have shut down, with whatever material they had gained from it, and recorded, being its essential legacy. Ultimately, though, of course, the final arbiter is Anne herself, and we shall see, I hope, what she plans to do with the issue.
I feel that with the Pernese will not be able to 'misuse' the information much, as they have to know that they are looking for in the first place to be able to search for it. Also, if they do not understand something, then it is most likely that they will not use it.

Besides, as the reason AIVAS gave, they were getting to the point where they could argue with him/it. And it is not necesaary even for them to continue development along the same lines as Earth, and are much more likely to develop Pernese ways of doing things if they did not have AIVAS to fall back on.
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Old Jan 11 2005, 06:39 AM   #40
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Default Re: Aivas and the future of Pern

Wasn't it mentioned in Dragonsdawn or one of the other books that Pern did not have the raw materials needed to be a very technical society? It seems like I read that somewhere but where eludes me...
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